Prelude to Paris

Another marathon training cycle is coming to an end. It's been a long period, starting as far back as last October. I suppose one of the best things about it is that last winter has to be one of the mildest we've had, so it hasn't been too difficult for me to go outside and run.

I'm quietly confident that I can set a new marathon personal best in Paris, but I can't help being a little cautious on what time I will actually get because the marathon is full of unknowns. Recent improvements in my marathon times have been reduced to a matter of minutes now, so it's only fair to say that the next marathon will be a minute or two faster than the last one. 

But I believe that a 3:10 is a strong possibility, a 9 minute improvement from the 3:19 I set at Berlin last September. It's a bold improvement, which is already starting to make me a little nervous, but I think it's definitely within my reach, and here is why. 

In this training cycle I've pushed myself harder. I've been far more consistent. I've varied my training plan. I've taken better care of myself. I've regularly hit my target times in training. And I've set some personal bests in shorter distances. To give a couple of examples, my 5k time is now 19:19, which in theory should give me a sub 3:10 marathon time. And my recent half marathon time, a PB of 1:33, was run slightly faster than 3:10 marathon pace, and on legs that have already run 40 miles for the week. I didn't even feel tired after the finish, and emerged largely unscathed the day after with very little soreness in the legs. 

In short, I'm in the best running form of my life!

To get 3:10 would be, in a word, amazing! Firstly, it would be my biggest improvement since 2009, over 9 minutes slashed from my current PB set 6 months ago. Secondly, it means that I can qualify for a Good for Age place in the London Marathon, which I've been trying to get into for the past 3 years through the public ballot. Thirdly, it gets me that much closer to my overall marathon goal of a sub 3 hour marathon time, a goal I've harboured since early 2010 and still working towards. When I first came up with that goal, I didn't appreciate how much work it would take to meet that target. Having gone through this training cycle, and having logged over 2200 km this cycle, I've developed a better understanding of the amount of work that is needed and what I need to do in order to get there.
 

So, given the above, I think the 3:10 time is there for the taking, but it will also depend on things to go my way on race day too. The weather could have the final say; if it turns out to be too hot, too wet or too windy, I can kiss that 3:10 time goodbye. Plus, this is my first time running the Paris Marathon, and chasing a fast time in an unfamiliar city on an unknown course will add a few more notches in difficulty.

I'm hoping for good cool weather, which is looking quite likely, but I can also mitigate any nasty surprises with a bit of thorough preparation, proper hydration and some smart race tactics on the day. If all goes well in Paris, I should achieve something pretty special. And the time to do it is NOW!